The Egyptian Crisis was a period that started with the Egyptian Revolution of 2011 and ended with the installation of a counterrevolutionary regime under the presidency of Abdel Fattah el-Sisi in 2014. It was a tumultuous three years of political and social unrest characterized by mass protests, popular elections, deadly clashes, and military reinforcement. The events have had a lasting effect on the country’s current course, political system and society.
In 2011, hundreds of thousands of Egyptians took to the streets in an ideologically and socially diverse mass protest movement that ultimately ousted longtime president Hosni Mubarak. A protracted political crisis ensued, with the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces taking control of the country until the 2012 presidential election brought Mohamed Morsi, the former Muslim Brotherhood leader, into power as Egypt’s first democratically elected President. However, ongoing disputes between the Muslim Brotherhood and secularists led to anti-government protests. They ultimately culminated in the 3 July 2013 coup d’état against Morsi, led by Chief General Abdel Fattah el-Sisi. The military move deepened the political schism and led to a crackdown by security forces, killing over a thousand Morsi supporters. In 2014, Abdel Fattah el-Sisi eventually won the presidential election in a landslide victory, criticized by international observers as lacking democratic standards.
The military became further anchored in Egypt’s politics, and maximal repression of revolutionary practices occurred under Sisi’s regime. The protesters’ demands, bread, freedom, dignity, and democracy, have not been met. During these years of political turmoil, the state’s authority had been threatened but never collapsed.
Background of the Egyptian Crisis
During his presidency, Hosni Mubarak pursued policies similar to those of his predecessor, Anwar Sadat, including adopting a neoliberal model corrupted by cronyism and a commitment to the Camp David Accords. Economic liberalization programs reduced the state’s and the military’s role in the economy, leading to a drastic decrease in defence expenditures by 2010. He also continued reducing the military’s influence in Egyptian politics by gradually clearing the ministries from military elites. The Mubarak regime increasingly relied on the police forces, administered by the Ministry of Interior, to manage public dissent. Moreover, Mubarak positioned his son, Gamal Mubarak, as his successor instead of a military officer. Although this gradual reshuffling of power led to tensions between Mubarak’s government and the military, his regime was considered stable by experts, and its collapse had not been anticipated.
The tight control and repression of sociopolitical opposition characterized Mubarak’s authoritarian rule. Civil society groups constantly clashed and bargained with the state over their place in public politics. Although rigorously monitored, political parties, elections, local democratic reforms, protests, administrative courts, and associations have been increasingly tolerated as a political activity since the 2000s.
The ever-increasing discontent among Egyptian citizens with the authoritarian regime originated from various concerns, ranging from the regime’s brutal policing and its use of violence and torture to corruption and election fraud. Increasing poverty and high unemployment compounded the resentment against Mubarak. After nearly three decades in power, Mubarak was ousted after 18 days of demonstrations across the country during the Egyptian Revolution of 2011.
Events during the Egyptian Crisis
2011 Egyptian uprising
The public resentment against the autocratic leadership of President Hosni Mubarak erupted into mass protests in late January 2011, following the Tunisian revolution that overthrew President Ben Ali in mid-January. Hundreds of thousands occupied several public places across Egypt, with Cairo’s Tahrir Square as the hub of the anti-government protests. Their diverse demands typically included dignity, bread, freedom, democracy, and social justice.
The police and demonstrators clashed violently, and the killing of three protestors remarkably deviated from the harsh but non-lethal repression the police usually deployed. Initially, the government took a hard line by using riot-control tactics and shutting down the internet and telecom networks, intensifying the protests. On 28 January 2011, Mubarak ordered the deployment of the army as the embattled police forces collapsed, leading to “the largest policing failure in Egypt’s history”. The military did not intervene in the protests as they no longer supported Mubarak’s rule. To accommodate the public, Mubarak appointed Omar Suleiman to the long-vacant office of vice president on 29 January and dissolved his cabinet soon after. Later, he announced that he would not seek re-election and promised constitutional reforms but refused to step down. As none of these concessions satisfied protesters, the masses on the streets grew, and the international pressure on Mubarak increased.
On 11 February 2011, Mubarak resigned as president and handed over power to the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces that had “to manage the country’s affairs”. Besides eradicating his nearly 30-year authoritarian rule, the nationwide protests marked an unprecedented event in Egypt’s history, as it successfully mobilized people from different socioeconomic backgrounds and merged them into one coalition against the government. The 18-day uprising left at least 846 civilians killed and more than 6,400 injured, according to a report commissioned by the Morsi regime. Human rights activists have been calling for a serious investigation of the actual number of revolution victims, as “the total number of casualties could be far higher”.
Transition under the SCAF regime
Following Hosni Mubarak’s resignation on 11 February 2011, the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF) under Field Marshal Mohamed Hussein Tantawi assumed control of the country. The SCAF suspended the 1971 constitution and dissolved the parliament, tightening its grip over legislative and executive power. Free elections were to be organized within six months. The interim military rule was fully backed internationally and, at least initially, well received by the public as a caretaker government, guaranteeing a rapid transition toward democracy. Public support for the military regime appeared from the constitutional referendum on 19 March 2011, in which 77.2% of voters approved the constitutional reforms proposed by the SCAF. Although objected to by many liberal revolutionaries, the constitutional amendments included the judicial supervision of elections, limited presidential powers, and required the newly elected parliament to write a new constitution.
Legislative elections were held from November 2011 to January 2012 and led to a victory of Islamist parties, with the Muslim Brotherhood’s Freedom and Justice Party occupying the majority of parliamentary seats and the Salafist’s al-Nour Party winning another quarter of the seats. Subsequently, the presidential election was held in May and June 2012 and has been considered the first free presidential election in Egypt’s history. However, the widespread support for the military started to crumble, and different civilian groups called for the end of military rule during renewed mass protests.
A ruling by the Supreme Constitutional Court declaring the legislative election unconstitutional led to the dissolution of the newly elected parliament in June 2012, just before the final round of the presidential election. Moreover, on 17 June 2012, the last day of the presidential election, the SCAF released a constitutional declaration that significantly limited the next president’s power and considerably extended the political power of the military officials. These actions were a blow to the Muslim Brotherhood, which denounced it as a coup and further consolidated the military’s role as a powerbroker in the post-Mubarak period.
Presidency of Mohamed Morsi
In June 2012, Mohamed Morsi won the presidential election with 51.7% of the vote in a run-off against army-backed candidate Ahmed Shafik, who served under Mubarak as prime minister. Morsi, a leading member of the Muslim Brotherhood and the Freedom and Justice Party, resigned from both organizations and was sworn in as Egypt’s first civilian president on 30 June 2012. However, Morsi’s presidency was brief and short-lived, facing massive protests for and against his rule, only to be ousted in a military coup in July 2013.
In August 2012, Morsi replaced Hussein Tantawi as Minister of Defense with Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, then chief of military intelligence. The drafting of a new constitution considered a central element in the country’s transition toward democracy, was criticized for the Islamists’ dominance in the process and deeply divided the involved political factions. The withdrawal of some main stakeholders, such as the secularists and the Coptic Christians, resulted in a draft constitution almost entirely written by Islamist parties. On 22 November 2012, Morsi granted himself the power to protect the constitutional process from dissolution by the court and the ability to legislate without judicial oversight until a new parliament was elected. While these unilateral actions led to massive protests and violent action throughout the country, Morsi submitted the draft constitution to a referendum in which 63.8% voted in favour despite a low turnout of 32.9%. The new constitution was signed into law, making it legally binding.
Morsi’s regime was contested by a constellation of forces comprising the military, the security forces, the judiciary, and secularists in what has been described as a “not-so-secret” parallel government aiming at its overthrow. Disagreement over the constitutional process, Morsi’s perceived incompetence, internal problems within the Brotherhood, and the failure to deal with some of the country’s main issues, such as shortages of necessities, further challenged his rule. In February 2013, the Salafists also withdrew their support from the president, and soon after, public resentment erupted into a campaign calling for his resignation and nationwide demonstrations.
2013 protests and military coup
In April 2013, a grassroots movement known as Tamarod, or “rebellion”, claimed to have collected 20 million signatures on a petition calling for new presidential elections and the suspension of the new constitution. The independence of Tamarod has been questioned, as its campaign was allegedly supported and funded by the SCAF and the security forces. On 30 June 2013, the first anniversary of Morsi’s inauguration was marked by mass demonstrations for, but mainly against, Morsi, in which thousands of protesters surrounded the Heliopolis presidential palace demanding the resignation of Morsi. The military drew on public resentment by issuing a 48-hour ultimatum that forced Morsi to reach a compromise with his opponents. Still, the president did not give in and insisted he was the legitimate leader.
The military has been accused of exaggerating the size of the anti-Morsi protests, claiming 15 and 17 million protesters, up to 30 million. Independent observers have set the crowd scale at 1 to 2 million. On 3 July 2013, the Egyptian Armed Forces, headed by Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, acted on its 48-hour ultimatum by carrying out a popularly supported coup d’état ousting President Mohamed Morsi. In one day, the generals subsequently removed Morsi from office. They imprisoned him, suspended the constitution, appointed Adly Mansour, chief justice of the Supreme Constitutional Court, as interim president, and called for early elections.
Post-coup unrest
The military coup triggered violent clashes between the military and Morsi supporters. Pro-Morsi protesters amassed near the Rabia Al-Adawiya Mosque, originally to celebrate the first anniversary of Morsi’s presidency. Still, after his removal, they called for his return to power and condemned the military. Following the coup, security forces violently suppressed pro-Morsi demonstrations, culminating in five incidents of mass killings, including the killing of 61 protestors at the Republican Guard headquarters on 8 July 2013. On 14 August 2013, security forces raided the pro-Morsi sit-ins at al-Nahda Square and Rabaa al-Adawiya Square, resulting in a massacre of at least 900 protesters. Human Rights Watch denounced the aggressive crackdown on primarily peaceful protesters as “serious violations of international human rights” and are most likely crimes against humanity. Subsequent violence led to the death of hundreds more people. The interim military government declared a state of emergency and a curfew that lasted three months.
On 24 March 2014, an Egyptian court sentenced 529 suspected members of the Muslim Brotherhood to death, accused of attacking a police station. Since the coup, approximately 60,000 people have been arrested or charged by the Egyptian authorities, with the Muslim Brotherhood’s primary target.
2014 election of Abdel Fattah el-Sisi
General Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, who led the military coup against President Mohamed Morsi, emerged as a popular figure in Egypt. He eventually ran for the presidency in the 2014 elections. In late May 2014, el-Sisi won in a landslide victory with 96.9% of the vote. His only rival was Hamdeen Sabahi in an election boycotted by Islamists and many political parties, including the Muslim Brotherhood and many liberal and secular groups. The election saw a voter turnout of 47.5%, lower than the 52% turnout in the 2012 presidential election, prompting the interim government to extend the vote at the last minute with the third day. Observers denounced the electoral process and the outcome as violating democratic rules. Analysts compared the election outcome to the Mubarak era, in which similar support for Mubarak was reported during periodic elections and referenda. Nonetheless, el-Sisi’s election was widely recognized internationally. Domestically, hundreds of his supporters celebrated the victory in Cairo’s Tahrir Square amid a deeply divided society.
Impact of the Egyptian Crisis
Between 2011 and 2014, multiple power centres emerged and competed for power, including the military, the Muslim Brotherhood and secularists. However, the military permanently played a vital role throughout the Egyptian Crisis that constituted this juncture. The army’s generals carefully sought to manage each episode and succeeded in maintaining power despite the country’s political transitions. The military had always dominated Egypt’s politics since the establishment of the first republic in 1952. With the installation of President el-Sisi, who removed Morsi in a military coup, the military’s political and economic grip on the state was fully consolidated, called “a counterrevolutionary regime”.
Meanwhile, the Muslim Brotherhood and other opposition groups have been under maximal repression. Any form of public dissent, including the right to protest and freedom of the press, is strongly restricted by Sisi’s repressive regime. Human rights organizations have accused Sisi’s authoritarian rule of using torture and enforced disappearances to crush political opponents and criminal suspects.
Sisi’s regime is not simply a continuation of Mubarak’s repressive rule but a regime aiming at eradicating all the revolutionary elements that developed during Mubarak’s final years and have thrived since the 2011 uprisings. Sisi’s policy of counterrevolution led many analysts to evaluate the Egyptian revolution as a “failed revolution”. However, critics of this view have assessed the period between 2011 and 2014 differently. It is argued that this period began without clear revolutionary intentions and has been terminated without a revolutionary outcome. Therefore, this turbulent period has also been described as a “revolutionary situation”, an “authoritarian breakdown”, a “constitutional revolution”, and a “revolutionary process” followed by “two waves of counterrevolution”. The discussion relates to broader reflections on the Arab Spring, described by Asef Bayat as “political upheavals that were both revolutionary and non-revolutionary”.
Socioeconomic impact
Since the 2011 revolution, the Egyptian economy has suffered from a severe downturn. The post-revolutionary governments faced numerous economic challenges while none of the governments met the demands of the people, such as high unemployment, crony capitalism, and widening income gaps. Political and institutional uncertainty, a perception of rising insecurity and sporadic unrest negatively affected Egypt’s economic situation. Since 2011, the government deficit was supplemented with an additional 10% yearly, and the country’s domestic and foreign debt stood well beyond 100% of the GDP in 2015. Tourism, crucial to Egypt’s economy as one of its primary sources of revenue, sharply dropped between 2010 and 2015 by an estimated 50%.
When Abdel Fattah el-Sisi took power in June 2014, reviving the economy was one of his main priorities to overcome the impact of the Egyptian Crisis. His government pushed through various economic reforms, such as cutting food and energy subsidies and raising taxes. One of his most important economic projects was the completion of a new Suez Canal in 2015. However, economic decline only exacerbated Egypt’s high unemployment rate, most visibly in extreme youth unemployment, which stood at more than 40% in 2016. By 2016, inflation and living costs heavily increased, pushing millions into poverty. 2016 indicates that “an estimated twenty million Egyptians are living at or below the poverty level”, including the lack of access to basic needs, health care and education. Additionally, an essential part of the population has been deployed in the informal economy, which complicates the provision of accurate data.
Sinai insurgency
Since the 2011 collapse of the Mubarak regime, a security vacuum emerged in the Sinai Peninsula, turning it into a site of a violent insurgency. Initially, the insurgency involved mainly local Bedouin tribe members who saw the revolution as an opportunity to oppose the regime’s discrimination and assert their authority in the region. Islamist militants, present in the Sinai with various setbacks since the mid-1970s, exploited the country’s unstable situation to launch several attacks on Egyptian security forces. A wave of attacks on Egyptian security personnel prompted the military to a harsh crackdown on the Islamist militant groups. Two military campaigns, Operation Eagle of the interim SCAF regime in 2011 and Operation Sinai of the newly elected Morsi regime in 2012, did not successfully eliminate the militant groups from the peninsula. The removal of Morsi and the brutal repression of pro-Morsi protesters in 2013 further intensified the militants’ activities.
In 2014, the most powerful militia in the Sinai, Ansar Bait al-Maqdis, pledged allegiance to the Islamic State and formed its branch of Islamic State in the Sinai Province. They claimed responsibility for an attack in which more than 30 Egyptian soldiers were killed, marked as the deadliest assault on security forces since 2011. Multiple significant offensives by the Egyptian army since 2014 neither crushed the Bedouin militants nor the jihadi groups. As a reaction to the aggressive political and military measures, their insurgent actions only became bolder, with waves of attacks in 2015, 2016, and 2017 on the army, Coptic Christians, and the Sufi community in the region. Their actions included downing a Russian passenger plane on 31 October 2015, killing all 224 aboard.
